D. Melipilla 3-3 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. Melipilla at 44%, yet in-form Union La Calera provide a compelling counter-argument — this D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Union La Calera travel to Estadio Municipal de La Pintana to take on D. Melipilla. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021, 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
D. Melipilla — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for D. Melipilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. Melipilla at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Union La Calera — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
D. Melipilla in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (D. Melipilla 40% | Union La Calera 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (D. Melipilla 30% | Union La Calera 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. Melipilla 1.19 xG and Union La Calera 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. Melipilla attack 1.095 / defence 1.113 | Union La Calera attack 0.777 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.887. Data: 11 D. Melipilla games / 10 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: D. Melipilla 44% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 22%. Fair-value odds: D. Melipilla 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Union La Calera 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is D. Melipilla at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union La Calera (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on D. Melipilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: D. Melipilla 60% | Union La Calera 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Pintana • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. Melipilla 44% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG D. Melipilla 1.19 / Union La Calera 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: D. Melipilla attack 1.095 / def 1.113 | Union La Calera attack 0.777 / def 1.149 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.887 • Poisson stance: D. Melipilla (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
D. Melipilla xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Union La Calera xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera kick off?
D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana.
What was the final score in D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera?
D. Melipilla 3 - 3 Union La Calera.
Where is D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana.
What competition is D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera part of?
D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives D. Melipilla a 44% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making D. Melipilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both D. Melipilla and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. Melipilla and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are D. Melipilla and Union La Calera in?
D. Melipilla (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from D. Melipilla's attack rating (1.09) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus D. Melipilla's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. Melipilla Win
44%
2.26
34%
2.95
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
D. Melipilla xG
Total xG
1.96
0.77
Union La Calera xG
2.26
44%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are D. Melipilla and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for D. Melipilla and 0.77 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
D. Melipilla come into this having played 10 games, going 4W 2D 4L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for D. Melipilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of D. Melipilla — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
D. Melipilla's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union La Calera's season.
Goals in Recent Form
D. Melipilla are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 0.90 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 30%.
Defensively: Union La Calera in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. Melipilla
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. Melipilla and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
D. Melipilla have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. Melipilla at home or Union La Calera away?
D. Melipilla's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. Melipilla at home: 1.60 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.40 PPG.
Have D. Melipilla or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
D. Melipilla have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
D. Melipilla
1
Draws
0
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. Melipilla and Union La Calera?
From 2 meetings on record, D. Melipilla have won 1, Union La Calera have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did D. Melipilla and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Union La Calera 2-3 D. Melipilla.
Who has won more matches between D. Melipilla and Union La Calera?
D. Melipilla have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
D. Melipilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — D. Melipilla 60%, Union La Calera 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for D. Melipilla and 40% for Union La Calera.
On the defensive side: Union La Calera in 40%; Union La Calera in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. Melipilla home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. Melipilla play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of D. Melipilla's recent matches and 20% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of D. Melipilla's recent games and 40% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do D. Melipilla and Union La Calera tend to score early?
D. Melipilla have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
D. Melipilla and Union La Calera share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana, Regular Season - 12, as D. Melipilla and Union La Calera drew 3-3 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. Melipilla 1.19 xG and Union La Calera 0.77 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. D. Melipilla beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union La Calera outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. Melipilla attack 1.09 / defence 1.11 against Union La Calera attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it D. Melipilla 44% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 22%, with D. Melipilla to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. Melipilla 30%, Union La Calera 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. Melipilla's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Union La Calera's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. D. Melipilla (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.