Curico Unido 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Curico Unido take on Everton de Vina.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Curico Unido host Everton de Vina at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.10 xG and Everton de Vina 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.071 / defence 0.972 | Everton de Vina attack 0.901 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 0.903 / away 1.091. Data: 4 Curico Unido games / 4 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 35% | Draw 38% | Everton de Vina 27%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 2.86 | Draw 2.63 | Everton de Vina 3.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 35% | Draw 38% | Everton de Vina 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Curico Unido 1.10 / Everton de Vina 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.071 / def 0.972 | Everton de Vina attack 0.901 / def 1.136 | league avg home 0.903 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Everton de Vina xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Curico Unido 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 35% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 27% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Curico Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Curico Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Curico Unido's attack rating (1.07) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.90
38%
2.61
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.05
0.96
Everton de Vina xG
2.90
35%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Curico Unido and 0.96 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Pre-Season
Everton de Vina
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Everton de Vina won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Curico Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Curico Unido
4
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Curico Unido and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 5, as Curico Unido and Everton de Vina drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.10 xG and Everton de Vina 0.96 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Everton de Vina attack 0.90 / defence 1.14, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 35% | Draw 38% | Everton de Vina 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.