Coquimbo Unido 1-2 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido host Deportes Iquique at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 6W 3D 1L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Iquique stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Iquique's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Coquimbo Unido have won 0, Deportes Iquique 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 2–4 with Deportes Iquique winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Deportes Iquique trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 50% and Deportes Iquique 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 50% | Deportes Iquique 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.95 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.043 / defence 0.772 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.121 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.260. Deportes Iquique bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Coquimbo Unido games / 18 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 22% | Deportes Iquique 21%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Deportes Iquique 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Deportes Iquique 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 22% | Deportes Iquique 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.95 / Deportes Iquique 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.043 / def 0.772 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.121 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Deportes Iquique xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 2 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 57% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Deportes Iquique 1W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Deportes Iquique's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.58
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.04
1.09
Deportes Iquique xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
33.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.09 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 18 games, going 10W 5D 3L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Iquique sit at 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.94 PPG, Deportes Iquique on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 6W 3D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Iquique have taken 1.33 points per game from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.83 scored and 1.67 conceded. Deportes Iquique's attacking output running into Coquimbo Unido's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique in 78%.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Deportes Iquique
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 games (1.94 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Deportes Iquique away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.33 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Deportes Iquique been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Deportes Iquique in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
2
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-1 Deportes Iquique.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 44%, Deportes Iquique 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Coquimbo Unido and 89% for Deportes Iquique. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Deportes Iquique?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 78% of Deportes Iquique's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 89% of Deportes Iquique's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Coquimbo Unido 1-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.95 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.09 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Deportes Iquique outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.04 / defence 0.77 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.12 / defence 1.26, drawn from 48/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 57% | Draw 22% | Deportes Iquique 21%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Iquique win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 50%, Deportes Iquique 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.94 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.