Coquimbo Unido 2-0 D. La Serena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees D. La Serena travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 July 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 2D 4L this season (9 games, 1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, D. La Serena stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for D. La Serena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
D. La Serena's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Coquimbo Unido 0.80 PPG, D. La Serena 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 0 for D. La Serena and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
D. La Serena in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 67% and D. La Serena 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 61% | D. La Serena 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.65 xG and D. La Serena 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.959 / defence 1.410 | D. La Serena attack 0.972 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.064. Data: 18 Coquimbo Unido games / 50 D. La Serena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 42% | Draw 25% | D. La Serena 33%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | D. La Serena 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 78% | D. La Serena 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 42% | Draw 25% | D. La Serena 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.65 / D. La Serena 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.959 / def 1.410 | D. La Serena attack 0.972 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.46
D. La Serena xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 0 D. La Serena.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 42% chance of winning, D. La Serena a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 1 | D. La Serena 0W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. D. La Serena (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.96) and D. La Serena's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, D. La Serena's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
42%
2.40
25%
4.04
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.11
1.46
D. La Serena xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.46 for D. La Serena, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 3W 4D 11L from 18 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
D. La Serena, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 9L across 18 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for D. La Serena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 0.72 PPG, D. La Serena on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.72 PPG overall — Coquimbo Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
D. La Serena's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; D. La Serena are on 1.11 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; D. La Serena in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
D. La Serena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while D. La Serena have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or D. La Serena away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.38 PPG; D. La Serena away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting D. La Serena specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
0
D. La Serena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena?
From 5 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, D. La Serena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when D. La Serena 0-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
D. La Serena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 75%, D. La Serena 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Coquimbo Unido and 62% for D. La Serena. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: D. La Serena in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / D. La Serena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play D. La Serena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 50% of D. La Serena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs D. La Serena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 62% of D. La Serena's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and D. La Serena tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, D. La Serena in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over D. La Serena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 2-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.65 xG and D. La Serena 1.46 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. D. La Serena landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.96 / defence 1.41 against D. La Serena attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 42% | Draw 25% | D. La Serena 33%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 61%, D. La Serena 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
D. La Serena's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 0.72 PPG, D. La Serena 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. D. La Serena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.