Colo Colo 1-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Colo Colo take on Universidad de Chile.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Monumental David Arellano plays host to Colo Colo versus Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 25 April 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 0.76 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.841 / defence 1.139 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.737 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 1.086. Data: 4 Colo Colo games / 3 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 25% | Draw 42% | Universidad de Chile 33%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 4.00 | Draw 2.38 | Universidad de Chile 3.03. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 25% | Draw 42% | Universidad de Chile 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 36% | xG Colo Colo 0.76 / Universidad de Chile 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.841 / def 1.139 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.737 / def 1.023 | league avg home 0.879 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Universidad de Chile xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile?
Colo Colo 1 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 25% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 33% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Colo Colo and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colo Colo and Universidad de Chile in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Colo Colo's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Universidad de Chile's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Universidad de Chile's attack (0.74x) against Colo Colo's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 4/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
4.06
42%
2.38
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
1.67
0.91
Universidad de Chile xG
4.06
25%
Home win
2.38
42%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 17.2 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.91 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 6 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Universidad de Chile — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Colo Colo
3
Draws
3
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 4, Universidad de Chile have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Colo Colo 0-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Universidad de Chile?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 0.76 xG and Universidad de Chile 0.91 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Universidad de Chile landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 4/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 25% | Draw 42% | Universidad de Chile 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Colo Colo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.