Colo Colo 1-0 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colo Colo vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Palestino at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Colo Colo — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Colo Colo at 2.40 PPG versus Palestino's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Colo Colo, 0 for Palestino and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 5–0 with Colo Colo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Colo Colo in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Palestino in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 43% versus Palestino 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 42% | Palestino 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.42 xG and Palestino 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.150 / defence 0.593 | Palestino attack 0.968 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.160. Colo Colo's defence rating of 0.593 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Colo Colo games / 53 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 55% | Draw 27% | Palestino 18%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Palestino 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 30% | Palestino 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 55% | Draw 27% | Palestino 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG Colo Colo 1.42 / Palestino 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.150 / def 0.593 | Palestino attack 0.968 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Palestino xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Palestino kick off?
Colo Colo vs Palestino kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Colo Colo 1 - 0 Palestino.
Where is Colo Colo vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Palestino part of?
Colo Colo vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 55% chance of winning, Palestino a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Colo Colo and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Palestino?
Record (2 meetings): Colo Colo 2W | Draws 0 | Palestino 0W.
What form are Colo Colo and Palestino in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Palestino (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Colo Colo's attack at 1.15x the league average against Palestino's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.66
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.08
0.67
Palestino xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.8 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.67 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Palestino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Colo Colo have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 32W 11D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palestino's form line: 19W 18D 16L from 53 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Palestino.
Venue Form
On home soil, Colo Colo have posted 2.12 PPG from 26 outings (17W 4D 5L).
On the road, Palestino have gone 7W 11D 8L from 26 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Colo Colo are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.43 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palestino in 62%.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Palestino in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 32W 11D 10L in their last 53 games (2.02 PPG), while Palestino have gone 19W 18D 16L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Palestino away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.12 PPG; Palestino away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Palestino in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2022, when Colo Colo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Colo Colo
2
Draws
2
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 6, Palestino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Colo Colo 0-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Palestino?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 27%, Palestino 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Colo Colo) and 50% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 65% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Colo Colo's recent games and 50% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Palestino tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Palestino in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Palestino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Palestino 1-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.42 xG and Palestino 0.67 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.15 / defence 0.59 against Palestino attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 55% | Draw 27% | Palestino 18%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 42%, Palestino 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palestino's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.