Colo Colo 1-1 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Copiapo make the trip to Estadio Monumental David Arellano to face Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Thursday 14 September 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colo Colo have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Monumental David Arellano — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Deportes Copiapo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Colo Colo's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Colo Colo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 5–2 with Colo Colo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Colo Colo — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 59% versus Deportes Copiapo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 41% | Deportes Copiapo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.65 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.148 / defence 0.834 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.715 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.218. Data: 51 Colo Colo games / 22 Deportes Copiapo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 59% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 16%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Deportes Copiapo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 50% | Deportes Copiapo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Sep 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 59% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 42% | xG Colo Colo 1.65 / Deportes Copiapo 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.148 / def 0.834 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.715 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Deportes Copiapo xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 14 September 2023 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Colo Colo 1 - 1 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 59% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo?
Record (1 meetings): Colo Colo 1W | Draws 0 | Deportes Copiapo 0W.
What form are Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Colo Colo's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Deportes Copiapo's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.71x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 51/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
59%
1.68
25%
4.04
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.38
0.73
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
32.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.73 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Colo Colo come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 9D 4L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Copiapo sit at 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Colo Colo's home form reads 6W 2D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Copiapo have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Colo Colo are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Deportes Copiapo are on 0.95 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 9W 9D 4L in their last 22 games (1.64 PPG), while Deportes Copiapo have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Deportes Copiapo away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.00 PPG; Deportes Copiapo away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Deportes Copiapo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Deportes Copiapo in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 2-5 on 22 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Colo Colo
2
Draws
1
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 1, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 1-1 Colo Colo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 50%, Deportes Copiapo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Colo Colo and 30% for Deportes Copiapo.
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Deportes Copiapo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Deportes Copiapo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 40% of Deportes Copiapo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Deportes Copiapo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Colo Colo's recent games and 30% of Deportes Copiapo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Deportes Copiapo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo and Deportes Copiapo finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.65 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.73 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 59% | Draw 25% | Deportes Copiapo 16%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 41%, Deportes Copiapo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.