Cobresal 1-0 Deportes Copiapo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus Deportes Copiapo in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 5 February 2023 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Cobresal (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio El Cobre, Cobresal have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Cobre. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 2.30 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.103 / defence 0.900 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.714 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.154. Deportes Copiapo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Cobresal games / 2 Deportes Copiapo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 72% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 10%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Deportes Copiapo 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Cobresal (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cobresal as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 72% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 48% | xG Cobresal 2.30 / Deportes Copiapo 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.103 / def 0.900 | Deportes Copiapo attack 0.714 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Deportes Copiapo xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo kick off?
Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo?
Cobresal 1 - 0 Deportes Copiapo.
Where is Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo part of?
Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 72% chance of winning, Deportes Copiapo a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cobresal and Deportes Copiapo will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Copiapo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Deportes Copiapo in?
Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Cobresal home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.10x the league average against Deportes Copiapo's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deportes Copiapo's attack (0.71x) against Cobresal's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 3-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.55
10%
10.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.04
0.74
Deportes Copiapo xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
10.07
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
10%
9.99
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
1%
100.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Deportes Copiapo expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.74 for Deportes Copiapo, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Deportes Copiapo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cobresal won 0-3 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cobresal
1
Draws
0
Deportes Copiapo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Deportes Copiapo?
From 4 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Deportes Copiapo last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 2-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Deportes Copiapo?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Deportes Copiapo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Deportes Copiapo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 2.30 xG and Deportes Copiapo 0.74 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cobresal fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Deportes Copiapo attack 0.71 / defence 1.29, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 72% | Draw 18% | Deportes Copiapo 10%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.