Antofagasta 1-0 Santiago Wanderers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antofagasta at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán plays host to Antofagasta versus Santiago Wanderers in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 16 July 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 3D 3L from 9 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Antofagasta have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Santiago Wanderers have collected 0.11 PPG across 9 Primera División outings this season: 0W 1D 8L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santiago Wanderers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Santiago Wanderers have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Antofagasta's 1.33 PPG return is 1.22 points per game ahead of Santiago Wanderers's 0.11 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Santiago Wanderers — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antofagasta 89% and Santiago Wanderers 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 56% | Santiago Wanderers 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.23 xG and Santiago Wanderers 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.994 / defence 1.239 | Santiago Wanderers attack 0.700 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 0.936. Santiago Wanderers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Antofagasta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Antofagasta games / 9 Santiago Wanderers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 45% | Draw 31% | Santiago Wanderers 24%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Santiago Wanderers 4.17. Antofagasta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antofagasta are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Antofagasta 75% | Santiago Wanderers 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jul 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 45% | Draw 31% | Santiago Wanderers 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Antofagasta 1.23 / Santiago Wanderers 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.994 / def 1.239 | Santiago Wanderers attack 0.700 / def 1.315 | league avg home 0.938 / away 0.936 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Santiago Wanderers xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers kick off?
Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 16 July 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers?
Antofagasta 1 - 0 Santiago Wanderers.
Where is Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers part of?
Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 45% chance of winning, Santiago Wanderers a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Santiago Wanderers (all comps): 0W-1D-8L in 9 | 0.11 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antofagasta's attack rating (0.99) and Santiago Wanderers's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santiago Wanderers's attack (0.70x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.22
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.04
0.81
Santiago Wanderers xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Antofagasta and 0.81 for Santiago Wanderers, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antofagasta come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santiago Wanderers sit at 0.11 PPG from 9 outings (0W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Santiago Wanderers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Santiago Wanderers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Antofagasta's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Santiago Wanderers have taken 0.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antofagasta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antofagasta are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Santiago Wanderers are on 0.44 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
Santiago Wanderers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Santiago Wanderers have gone 0W 1D 8L in their last 9 (0.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Santiago Wanderers away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.50 PPG; Santiago Wanderers away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Antofagasta
0
Draws
0
Santiago Wanderers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers?
From 2 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 2, Santiago Wanderers have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2021, when Santiago Wanderers 0-1 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antofagasta see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Santiago Wanderers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 75%, Santiago Wanderers 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Antofagasta and 50% for Santiago Wanderers. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Santiago Wanderers in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Santiago Wanderers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Santiago Wanderers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Antofagasta's games and 50% of Santiago Wanderers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antofagasta vs Santiago Wanderers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Antofagasta's matches and 50% of Santiago Wanderers's.
Do Antofagasta and Santiago Wanderers tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Santiago Wanderers in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antofagasta edge out Santiago Wanderers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Santiago Wanderers 1-0 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.23 xG and Santiago Wanderers 0.81 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santiago Wanderers landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.99 / defence 1.24 against Santiago Wanderers attack 0.70 / defence 1.31, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 45% | Draw 31% | Santiago Wanderers 24%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 56%, Santiago Wanderers 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did not.
Santiago Wanderers's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antofagasta arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.11. Form held, and they took the win. Antofagasta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.