A. Italiano 0-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates A. Italiano at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
A. Italiano and Everton de Vina meet at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
A. Italiano's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for A. Italiano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
A. Italiano's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 0L across 6 games at Estadio El Teniente this term (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — A. Italiano are significantly better at Estadio El Teniente than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina away from home this season: 2W 3D 0L from 5 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for A. Italiano against 1.60 for Everton de Vina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
A. Italiano half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — A. Italiano 46% versus Everton de Vina 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (A. Italiano 18% | Everton de Vina 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 1.10 xG and Everton de Vina 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 1.139 / defence 1.272 | Everton de Vina attack 0.846 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 0.909. Data: 12 A. Italiano games / 11 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 36% | Draw 35% | Everton de Vina 29%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Everton de Vina 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates A. Italiano as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on A. Italiano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: A. Italiano 50% | Everton de Vina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 36% | Draw 35% | Everton de Vina 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG A. Italiano 1.10 / Everton de Vina 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 1.139 / def 1.272 | Everton de Vina attack 0.846 / def 0.979 | league avg home 0.987 / away 0.909 • Poisson stance: A. Italiano (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Everton de Vina xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina kick off?
A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 00:00 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina?
A. Italiano 0 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina part of?
A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 36% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making A. Italiano the favourite.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both A. Italiano and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are A. Italiano and Everton de Vina in?
A. Italiano (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from A. Italiano's attack rating (1.14) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.85x) against A. Italiano's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 12/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
A. Italiano Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.84
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
2.08
0.98
Everton de Vina xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for A. Italiano and 0.98 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
A. Italiano come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 6D 1L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for A. Italiano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for A. Italiano against 1.55 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
A. Italiano's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — A. Italiano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.80 points per game from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, A. Italiano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
A. Italiano are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.82 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Everton de Vina in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are A. Italiano and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
A. Italiano have gone 4W 6D 1L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — A. Italiano at home or Everton de Vina away?
A. Italiano's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — A. Italiano at home: 2.20 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.80 PPG.
Have A. Italiano or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
A. Italiano have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, A. Italiano have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
A. Italiano
2
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, A. Italiano have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when A. Italiano 1-0 Everton de Vina.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Everton de Vina tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — A. Italiano 40%, Everton de Vina 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for A. Italiano and 20% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: A. Italiano keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when A. Italiano play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of A. Italiano's recent matches and 60% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is A. Italiano vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of A. Italiano's recent games and 20% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do A. Italiano and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
A. Italiano have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over A. Italiano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat A. Italiano 0-2 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.10 xG and Everton de Vina 0.98 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. A. Italiano fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.14 / defence 1.27 against Everton de Vina attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 12/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 36% | Draw 35% | Everton de Vina 29%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 18% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 18%, Everton de Vina 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
A. Italiano's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.64 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.