Universidad de Chile 2-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 16 as Universidad de Chile welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 July 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Universidad de Chile are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.
Union La Calera — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Universidad de Chile) versus 1.10 (Union La Calera). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Universidad de Chile, 0 for Union La Calera and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 4–2 with Universidad de Chile winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 53% versus Union La Calera 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 45% | Union La Calera 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.64 xG and Union La Calera 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 1.045 / defence 0.942 | Union La Calera attack 0.878 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 0.992. Data: 47 Universidad de Chile games / 47 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 56% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 18%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Union La Calera 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Universidad de Chile (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Universidad de Chile 50% | Union La Calera 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 56% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.64 / Union La Calera 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 1.045 / def 0.942 | Union La Calera attack 0.878 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.452 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Union La Calera xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Universidad de Chile 2 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 56% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera?
Record (2 meetings): Universidad de Chile 2W | Draws 0 | Union La Calera 0W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (1.04) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.75
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.46
0.82
Union La Calera xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
29.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.82 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 11D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 1.38 PPG from 47 outings (17W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Universidad de Chile on 1.19 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.06 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 17W 14D 16L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Union La Calera away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.48 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Universidad de Chile or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2025, when Universidad de Chile won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Universidad de Chile
2
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 7, Union La Calera have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Union La Calera 2-2 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 52%, Union La Calera 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Universidad de Chile) and 56% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera in 30%; Universidad de Chile have failed to score in 30% of games; Union La Calera in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 52% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 56% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Union La Calera 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Union La Calera 2-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.64 xG and Union La Calera 0.82 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Union La Calera attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 56% | Draw 27% | Union La Calera 18%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 45%, Union La Calera 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.19 PPG, Union La Calera 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.