Universidad de Chile 1-1 Nublense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Nublense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Universidad de Chile and Nublense meet at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Universidad de Chile's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Chile's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at Estadio El Teniente this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nublense have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nublense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Nublense have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Universidad de Chile, 1.70 for Nublense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Universidad de Chile — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Nublense — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 46% versus Nublense 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Universidad de Chile 36% | Nublense 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.16 xG and Nublense 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.963 / defence 0.980 | Nublense attack 0.754 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 1.021. Data: 11 Universidad de Chile games / 12 Nublense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 36% | Nublense 21%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Nublense 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Universidad de Chile 40% | Nublense 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 36% | Nublense 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.16 / Nublense 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.963 / def 0.980 | Nublense attack 0.754 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.012 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Nublense xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Nublense kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 1 Nublense.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Nublense part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 43% chance of winning, Nublense a 21% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Nublense will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Nublense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Nublense in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Nublense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (0.96) and Nublense's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (0.75x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
43%
2.34
36%
2.79
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
1.91
0.76
Nublense xG
2.34
43%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.76 for Nublense, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Universidad de Chile have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 5W 3D 3L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nublense's form line: 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Nublense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Universidad de Chile against 1.64 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Universidad de Chile have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Nublense have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nublense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Nublense in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Nublense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Nublense in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while Nublense have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Nublense away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 2.00 PPG; Nublense away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Universidad de Chile or Nublense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Universidad de Chile have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Nublense in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Universidad de Chile won 5-0 on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
4
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Nublense?
From 10 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 3, Nublense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Nublense last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nublense 1-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Nublense?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nublense see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 40%, Nublense 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Universidad de Chile and 40% for Nublense.
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nublense in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Nublense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 40% of Nublense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Nublense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 40% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Nublense tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nublense in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Universidad de Chile and Nublense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile and Nublense finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.16 xG and Nublense 0.76 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Nublense attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 36% | Nublense 21%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 36%, Nublense 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Nublense's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.64 PPG, Nublense 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.