Union La Calera 2-4 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Universidad de Chile at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union La Calera — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera's home record at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Primera División appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Primera División games this season, Universidad de Chile have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Universidad de Chile have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Union La Calera have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Union La Calera have won 0, Universidad de Chile 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with Universidad de Chile winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union La Calera trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Universidad de Chile trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 56% versus Universidad de Chile 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Universidad de Chile 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.15 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.906 / defence 1.112 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.902 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.221. Data: 32 Union La Calera games / 32 Universidad de Chile games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 33% | Draw 30% | Universidad de Chile 37%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Universidad de Chile 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Union La Calera (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 50% | Universidad de Chile 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 33% | Draw 30% | Universidad de Chile 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Union La Calera 1.15 / Universidad de Chile 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.906 / def 1.112 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.902 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Universidad de Chile xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Union La Calera 2 - 4 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 33% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
Record (1 meetings): Union La Calera 0W | Draws 0 | Universidad de Chile 1W.
What form are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.91x the league average against Universidad de Chile's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.37
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.37
1.23
Universidad de Chile xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.23 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Union La Calera have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 15W 6D 11L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Universidad de Chile's form line: 10W 9D 13L from 32 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.59 PPG, Universidad de Chile on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union La Calera have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (7W 2D 7L).
On the road, Universidad de Chile have gone 5W 4D 7L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.06 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Universidad de Chile away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.44 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 14 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2025, when Universidad de Chile won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
2
Draws
7
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 1, Universidad de Chile have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Union La Calera 2-2 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Universidad de Chile 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Union La Calera) and 50% (Universidad de Chile).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Universidad de Chile in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Universidad de Chile?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 50% of Universidad de Chile's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Union La Calera's recent games and 50% of Universidad de Chile's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Universidad de Chile cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Union La Calera 2-4 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.15 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.23 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Union La Calera beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Universidad de Chile outscored their 1.23 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.91 / defence 1.11 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 33% | Draw 30% | Universidad de Chile 37%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Universidad de Chile 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.59 PPG, Universidad de Chile 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Universidad de Chile win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.