Union Espanola 1-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on Union Espanola. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union Espanola at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Espanola are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Coquimbo Unido's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Union Espanola's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Union Espanola, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Union Espanola trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 52% versus Coquimbo Unido 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 47% | Coquimbo Unido 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.18 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.956 / defence 1.180 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.947 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.325. Data: 32 Union Espanola games / 32 Coquimbo Unido games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Coquimbo Unido 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 50% | Coquimbo Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Union Espanola 1.18 / Coquimbo Unido 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 0.956 / def 1.180 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.947 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Coquimbo Unido xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Union Espanola 1 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 30% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (4 meetings): Union Espanola 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union Espanola's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
30%
3.32
26%
3.89
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.66
1.48
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
7%
14.58
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.48 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 20W 16D 24L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 22W 11D 27L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Espanola on 1.27 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (11W 11D 8L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 8W 6D 16L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Espanola are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 20W 16D 24L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.47 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Union Espanola's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Union Espanola
1
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
From 8 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 57%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Union Espanola) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Union Espanola keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Union Espanola's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Union Espanola's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.18 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.48 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 30% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 44%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Union Espanola win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 47%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.27 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.