Palestino 0-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palestino vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 November 2023, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palestino 2.00 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Palestino, 2 for Everton de Vina and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palestino in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 54% versus Everton de Vina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 53% | Everton de Vina 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.29 xG and Everton de Vina 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.062 / defence 0.831 | Everton de Vina attack 1.162 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.344. Data: 57 Palestino games / 57 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 36% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 37%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 60% | Everton de Vina 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Nov 2023, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 36% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Palestino 1.29 / Everton de Vina 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.062 / def 0.831 | Everton de Vina attack 1.162 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Everton de Vina xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 21:00 on Thursday 23 November 2023 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Palestino 0 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Palestino vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Everton de Vina part of?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 36% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Palestino and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Record (4 meetings): Palestino 0W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are Palestino and Everton de Vina in?
Palestino (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.06x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.78
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.58
1.30
Everton de Vina xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Palestino and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Palestino and 1.30 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Palestino have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 24W 17D 16L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 21W 21D 15L from 57 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.56 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palestino have posted 1.93 PPG from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 10W 10D 8L from 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palestino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.40 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 24W 17D 16L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 21W 21D 15L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Everton de Vina away?
Palestino's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.93 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Palestino or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palestino have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
3
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 57%, Everton de Vina 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palestino) and 39% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Palestino's games and 61% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palestino vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palestino's recent games and 39% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Palestino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Palestino 0-2 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.29 xG and Everton de Vina 1.30 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Palestino fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.06 / defence 0.83 against Everton de Vina attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 36% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 37%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 53%, Everton de Vina 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.56 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.