Palestino 2-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to face Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Palestino's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palestino have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Palestino have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Coquimbo Unido in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palestino lead 2W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Palestino half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 58% versus Coquimbo Unido 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 53% | Coquimbo Unido 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.55 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.008 / defence 0.878 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.140 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.218. Data: 46 Palestino games / 45 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 45% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 30%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 3.33. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palestino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 60% | Coquimbo Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 45% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Palestino 1.55 / Coquimbo Unido 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.008 / def 0.878 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.140 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Palestino (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Coquimbo Unido xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino 2 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 45% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Palestino and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (9 meetings): Palestino 2W | Draws 5 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.01x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (1.14x) against Palestino's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.00
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.77
1.22
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
6%
15.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Palestino and 1.22 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palestino's recent record stands at 20W 10D 15L from 45 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 30W 9D 6L across 45 games — 2.20 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coquimbo Unido by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Palestino heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 14W 4D 4L across 22 trips, a 2.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Palestino are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.58 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 games (1.56 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 30W 9D 6L in their last 45 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.77 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Palestino or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palestino won 5-1 on 16 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palestino have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
5
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Palestino 2-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Coquimbo Unido?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palestino see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 54%, Coquimbo Unido 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Palestino) and 46% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Palestino's recent matches and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Palestino's recent games and 46% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Coquimbo Unido 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.55 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.22 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 45% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 30%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 53%, Coquimbo Unido 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with Palestino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.