Nublense 1-1 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nublense at 52%, yet in-form Deportes Limache provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nublense vs Deportes Limache fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Deportes Limache travel to Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas to take on Nublense. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nublense stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Nublense have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Nublense are significantly better at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas than their overall form suggests.
Deportes Limache — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Deportes Limache have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Deportes Limache are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nublense, 0 for Deportes Limache and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 1–0 with Nublense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nublense in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Deportes Limache in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 43% versus Deportes Limache 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 37% | Deportes Limache 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.67 xG and Deportes Limache 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.005 / defence 0.968 | Deportes Limache attack 1.080 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 0.981. Data: 31 Nublense games / 31 Deportes Limache games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nublense 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 23%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Deportes Limache 4.35. Nublense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nublense as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Deportes Limache (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nublense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 40% | Deportes Limache 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Nublense 1.67 / Deportes Limache 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.005 / def 0.968 | Deportes Limache attack 1.080 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.529 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Nublense (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Deportes Limache xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Nublense vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Deportes Limache?
Nublense 1 - 1 Deportes Limache.
Where is Nublense vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas.
What competition is Nublense vs Deportes Limache part of?
Nublense vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 52% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nublense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nublense and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Limache?
Record (2 meetings): Nublense 1W | Draws 1 | Deportes Limache 0W.
What form are Nublense and Deportes Limache in?
Nublense (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Deportes Limache (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nublense's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Deportes Limache's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Limache's attack versus Nublense's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nublense Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.12
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.70
1.03
Deportes Limache xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
4%
22.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nublense and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Nublense and 1.03 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Deportes Limache?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nublense's recent record stands at 8W 9D 13L from 30 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Deportes Limache, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 15L across 30 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nublense on 1.10 PPG, Deportes Limache on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nublense have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Deportes Limache's away record stands at 1W 5D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Limache's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nublense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nublense are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Deportes Limache are on 1.20 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Deportes Limache
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Deportes Limache in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 games (1.10 PPG), while Deportes Limache have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Deportes Limache away?
Nublense's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.20 PPG; Deportes Limache away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Nublense or Deportes Limache been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Deportes Limache in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nublense and Deportes Limache runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nublense's record when hosting Deportes Limache specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nublense
2
Draws
1
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Deportes Limache?
From 4 meetings on record, Nublense have won 1, Deportes Limache have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Deportes Limache 2-0 Nublense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nublense see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 47%, Deportes Limache 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Nublense) and 73% (Deportes Limache).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nublense have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Deportes Limache?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Nublense's games and 80% of Deportes Limache's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Deportes Limache usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Nublense's recent games and 73% of Deportes Limache's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Deportes Limache tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Deportes Limache in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense and Deportes Limache share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Regular Season - 2, as Nublense and Deportes Limache drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.67 xG and Deportes Limache 1.03 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Deportes Limache attack 1.08 / defence 1.09, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 23%, with Nublense to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 37%, Deportes Limache 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Limache's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nublense 1.10 PPG, Deportes Limache 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.