Everton de Vina 1-1 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Everton de Vina host U. Catolica at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton de Vina at 1.50 PPG versus U. Catolica's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 1, U. Catolica 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
U. Catolica trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 41% versus U. Catolica 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 31% | U. Catolica 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.44 xG and U. Catolica 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.733 / defence 0.808 | U. Catolica attack 1.087 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.126. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. U. Catolica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Everton de Vina games / 51 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 26%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | U. Catolica 3.85. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 40% | U. Catolica 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Everton de Vina 1.44 / U. Catolica 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.733 / def 0.808 | U. Catolica attack 1.087 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.99
U. Catolica xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica kick off?
Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Everton de Vina 1 - 1 U. Catolica.
Where is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica part of?
Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 47% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Everton de Vina and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
Record (2 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 0 | U. Catolica 1W.
What form are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.73) and U. Catolica's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.76
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.43
0.99
U. Catolica xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.99 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 16W 18D 17L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
U. Catolica's form line: 30W 3D 18L from 51 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, U. Catolica are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton de Vina.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.46 PPG from 24 outings (9W 8D 7L).
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 9W 0D 15L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of U. Catolica's season.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.75 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; U. Catolica in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
U. Catolica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 16W 18D 17L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 30W 3D 18L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or U. Catolica away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.46 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, U. Catolica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 33%, U. Catolica 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Everton de Vina) and 71% (U. Catolica).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play U. Catolica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 58% of U. Catolica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 71% of U. Catolica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina and U. Catolica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 21, as Everton de Vina and U. Catolica drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.44 xG and U. Catolica 0.99 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.73 / defence 0.81 against U. Catolica attack 1.09 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 47% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 26%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 31%, U. Catolica 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
U. Catolica's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.