Everton de Vina 0-0 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 1 as Everton de Vina welcome Palestino to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 March 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palestino's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.70 (Palestino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Everton de Vina hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Palestino, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Everton de Vina winning.
The historical record gives Everton de Vina a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Palestino in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 55% versus Palestino 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 42% | Palestino 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.28 xG and Palestino 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.189 / defence 1.137 | Palestino attack 1.008 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.213. Data: 34 Everton de Vina games / 34 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 34% | Draw 26% | Palestino 40%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Palestino 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palestino at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 80% | Palestino 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Mar 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 34% | Draw 26% | Palestino 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Everton de Vina 1.28 / Palestino 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.189 / def 1.137 | Palestino attack 1.008 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Palestino (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Palestino xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Palestino kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 23 March 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Everton de Vina 0 - 0 Palestino.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Palestino part of?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 34% chance of winning, Palestino a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Everton de Vina and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Record (5 meetings): Everton de Vina 3W | Draws 2 | Palestino 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.86
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.67
1.39
Palestino xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.39 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 22W 21D 17L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Palestino's form line: 26W 17D 17L from 60 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.45 PPG, Palestino on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (11W 11D 8L).
On the road, Palestino have gone 9W 11D 10L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.52 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Palestino in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 games (1.45 PPG), while Palestino have gone 26W 17D 17L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Palestino away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Palestino away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Palestino in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Palestino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palestino have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, Palestino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Palestino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 47% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palestino in 33%; Palestino in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 50% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 47% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Palestino tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palestino in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Everton de Vina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 1, as Everton de Vina and Palestino drew 0-0 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.28 xG and Palestino 1.39 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton de Vina fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Palestino landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.19 / defence 1.14 against Palestino attack 1.01 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 34% | Draw 26% | Palestino 40%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 42%, Palestino 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG, Palestino 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Palestino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.