Deportes Copiapo 2-2 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Copiapo at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla plays host to Deportes Copiapo versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Deportes Copiapo (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Deportes Copiapo are significantly better at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla than their overall form suggests.
Cobresal have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cobresal are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Cobresal hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Cobresal winning.
It is worth noting that Cobresal have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cobresal — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 48% versus Cobresal 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 50% | Cobresal 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.51 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.938 / defence 0.956 | Cobresal attack 0.809 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.209. Data: 52 Deportes Copiapo games / 52 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Cobresal 4.35. Deportes Copiapo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Copiapo are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cobresal (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Copiapo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Copiapo 30% | Cobresal 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.51 / Cobresal 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.938 / def 0.956 | Cobresal attack 0.809 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Deportes Copiapo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cobresal xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Deportes Copiapo 2 - 2 Cobresal.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 51% chance of winning, Cobresal a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Deportes Copiapo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Copiapo 0W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 3W.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Deportes Copiapo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.81x) against Deportes Copiapo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Copiapo Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.81
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.45
0.94
Cobresal xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
5%
19.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 0.94 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Deportes Copiapo come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 11D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.52 PPG from 52 outings (21W 16D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Deportes Copiapo's home form reads 11W 5D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Deportes Copiapo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (5W 9D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Copiapo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.71 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 11D 27L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 21W 16D 15L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Cobresal away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.52 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cobresal won 0-3 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Copiapo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Copiapo
1
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, Cobresal have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 2-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 52%, Cobresal 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Deportes Copiapo and 64% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cobresal in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Copiapo play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Deportes Copiapo's recent matches and 56% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Deportes Copiapo's matches and 64% of Cobresal's.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal tend to score early?
Deportes Copiapo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 23, as Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal drew 2-2 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.51 xG and Cobresal 0.94 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cobresal outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Cobresal attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 23%, with Deportes Copiapo to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 50%, Cobresal 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cobresal arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.