Coquimbo Unido 4-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 30 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Union Espanola to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 9W 1D 0L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Espanola stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Coquimbo Unido have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 3 for Union Espanola and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2025, ended 2–0 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Union Espanola trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 46% versus Union Espanola 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 42% | Union Espanola 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.50 xG and Union Espanola 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.075 / defence 0.773 | Union Espanola attack 0.686 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.149. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Coquimbo Unido games / 59 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 59% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 15%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Union Espanola 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Union Espanola's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 50% | Union Espanola 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 59% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 35% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.50 / Union Espanola 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.075 / def 0.773 | Union Espanola attack 0.686 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Union Espanola xG
35%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Coquimbo Unido 4 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 59% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
Record (7 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 3W | Draws 1 | Union Espanola 3W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Union Espanola (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 2-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.83
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.10
0.61
Union Espanola xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
3%
29.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.61 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 59 games, going 34W 15D 10L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.12 PPG from 59 outings (19W 9D 31L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 18W 9D 2L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.42 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 34W 15D 10L in their last 59 games (1.98 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 19W 9D 31L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Union Espanola away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.17 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
From 8 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Union Espanola have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Coquimbo Unido 4-2 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Union Espanola?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Union Espanola see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 48%, Union Espanola 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Coquimbo Unido) and 45% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Union Espanola in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 41% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 45% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Union Espanola 4-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.50 xG and Union Espanola 0.61 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Espanola outscored their 0.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.07 / defence 0.77 against Union Espanola attack 0.69 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 59% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 15%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 42%, Union Espanola 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.