Coquimbo Unido 1-2 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso plays host to Coquimbo Unido versus U. Catolica in Primera División, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 5W 3D 2L at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
U. Catolica have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, U. Catolica have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 4 for U. Catolica and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Coquimbo Unido half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
U. Catolica half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 52% versus U. Catolica 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 46% | U. Catolica 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.45 xG and U. Catolica 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.913 / defence 0.806 | U. Catolica attack 0.999 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.346. Data: 48 Coquimbo Unido games / 49 U. Catolica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 46% | Draw 26% | U. Catolica 28%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | U. Catolica 3.57. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 60% | U. Catolica 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Aug 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 46% | Draw 26% | U. Catolica 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.45 / U. Catolica 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.913 / def 0.806 | U. Catolica attack 0.999 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.08
U. Catolica xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 2 U. Catolica.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 46% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
Record (9 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 5W | Draws 0 | U. Catolica 4W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. U. Catolica (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.91) and U. Catolica's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — U. Catolica's attack (1.00x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.81
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.54
1.08
U. Catolica xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.08 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 48 games, going 30W 11D 7L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, U. Catolica sit at 1.77 PPG from 48 outings (25W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.10 PPG for Coquimbo Unido against 1.77 for U. Catolica. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 15W 6D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, U. Catolica have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.71 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
U. Catolica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 30W 11D 7L in their last 48 games (2.10 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or U. Catolica away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.22 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
U. Catolica go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against U. Catolica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
5
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, U. Catolica have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-2 U. Catolica.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 52%, U. Catolica 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Coquimbo Unido) and 44% (U. Catolica).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; U. Catolica in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play U. Catolica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 52% of U. Catolica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 44% of U. Catolica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as U. Catolica defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Coquimbo Unido 1-2 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.45 xG and U. Catolica 1.08 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.91 / defence 0.81 against U. Catolica attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 46% | Draw 26% | U. Catolica 28%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual U. Catolica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 46%, U. Catolica 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
U. Catolica's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 2.10 PPG, U. Catolica 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.