Cobreloa 0-3 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobreloa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobreloa vs A. Italiano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobreloa host A. Italiano at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 April 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
A. Italiano — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, A. Italiano have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobreloa 1.26 xG and A. Italiano 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobreloa attack 0.881 / defence 1.143 | A. Italiano attack 0.708 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.226. Data: 8 Cobreloa games / 38 A. Italiano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobreloa 43% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 29%. Fair-value odds: Cobreloa 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | A. Italiano 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cobreloa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobreloa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobreloa vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Zorros del Desierto • Kick-off: Monday 22 Apr 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobreloa 43% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Cobreloa 1.26 / A. Italiano 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cobreloa attack 0.881 / def 1.143 | A. Italiano attack 0.708 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Cobreloa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cobreloa xG
Expected Goals
0.99
A. Italiano xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobreloa vs A. Italiano kick off?
Cobreloa vs A. Italiano kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 22 April 2024 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What was the final score in Cobreloa vs A. Italiano?
Cobreloa 0 - 3 A. Italiano.
Where is Cobreloa vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What competition is Cobreloa vs A. Italiano part of?
Cobreloa vs A. Italiano is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobreloa vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Cobreloa a 43% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cobreloa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cobreloa and A. Italiano will score (BTTS).
Will Cobreloa vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and A. Italiano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobreloa and A. Italiano in?
A. Italiano (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. A. Italiano away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cobreloa's attack rating (0.88) and A. Italiano's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, A. Italiano's attack versus Cobreloa's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobreloa Win
43%
2.35
28%
3.52
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cobreloa xG
Total xG
2.25
0.99
A. Italiano xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobreloa vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cobreloa and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cobreloa and 0.99 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobreloa vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
A. Italiano
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cobreloa and A. Italiano runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cobreloa
0
Draws
2
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and A. Italiano?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobreloa have won 0, A. Italiano have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobreloa and A. Italiano last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when A. Italiano 2-0 Cobreloa.
Who has won more matches between Cobreloa and A. Italiano?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobreloa home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant A. Italiano run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cobreloa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
A. Italiano beat Cobreloa 0-3 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobreloa 1.26 xG and A. Italiano 0.99 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cobreloa fell 1.3 short of their projected output. A. Italiano outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobreloa attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against A. Italiano attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobreloa 43% | Draw 28% | A. Italiano 29%, with Cobreloa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual A. Italiano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.