Antofagasta 1-0 Huachipato – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Huachipato at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antofagasta vs Huachipato fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antofagasta host Huachipato at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 May 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.28 xG and Huachipato 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 1.040 / defence 1.368 | Huachipato attack 0.967 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.062. Huachipato bring a strong defensive rating of 1.257 — this is suppressing Antofagasta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Antofagasta games / 6 Huachipato games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 33% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 39%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Huachipato 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Huachipato are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Huachipato offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Huachipato | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Monday 31 May 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 33% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Antofagasta 1.28 / Huachipato 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 1.040 / def 1.368 | Huachipato attack 0.967 / def 1.257 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Huachipato (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Huachipato xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Huachipato kick off?
Antofagasta vs Huachipato kicked off at 20:30 on Monday 31 May 2021 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Huachipato?
Antofagasta 1 - 0 Huachipato.
Where is Antofagasta vs Huachipato being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Huachipato part of?
Antofagasta vs Huachipato is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Huachipato?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 33% chance of winning, Huachipato a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Huachipato the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Huachipato?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Antofagasta and Huachipato will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Huachipato have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Huachipato?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antofagasta and Huachipato in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antofagasta's attack at 1.04x the league average against Huachipato's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Huachipato's attack versus Antofagasta's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Huachipato Win
33%
3.01
28%
3.63
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.68
1.41
Huachipato xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Huachipato?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Huachipato expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.41 for Huachipato, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Huachipato?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
Huachipato
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antofagasta and Huachipato runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antofagasta's record when hosting Huachipato specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Antofagasta
1
Draws
1
Huachipato
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Huachipato?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 2, Huachipato have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Huachipato last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Huachipato 1-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Huachipato?
Antofagasta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Huachipato away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Antofagasta defy the odds to beat Huachipato 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Huachipato 1-0 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.28 xG and Huachipato 1.41 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Huachipato landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 1.04 / defence 1.37 against Huachipato attack 0.97 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 33% | Draw 28% | Huachipato 39%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Antofagasta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.