York United 2-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates York United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
York Lions Stadium plays host to York United versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Vancouver FC (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (20 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 60% versus Vancouver FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 65% | Vancouver FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.22 xG and Vancouver FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.734 / defence 1.141 | Vancouver FC attack 0.552 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.311. York United's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vancouver FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing York United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 York United games / 20 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 45% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 25%. Fair-value odds: York United 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Vancouver FC 4.00. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on York United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: York United 40% | Vancouver FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 45% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG York United 1.22 / Vancouver FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.734 / def 1.141 | Vancouver FC attack 0.552 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: York United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
York United xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Vancouver FC xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Vancouver FC kick off?
York United vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Vancouver FC?
York United 2 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is York United vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Vancouver FC part of?
York United vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives York United a 45% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both York United and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Vancouver FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Vancouver FC in?
York United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
York United's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.55x) against York United's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 49/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
45%
2.22
30%
3.32
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
York United xG
Total xG
2.04
0.83
Vancouver FC xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are York United and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for York United and 0.83 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, York United have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 7W 5D 8L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC's form line: 4W 5D 11L from 20 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, York United are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, York United have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vancouver FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, York United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 0.90 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
York United have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Vancouver FC away?
York United's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.00 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-0 on 19 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
York United
2
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 6, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 4-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Vancouver FC?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 38%, Vancouver FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (York United) and 38% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: York United have failed to score in 50% of games; Vancouver FC in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of York United's recent matches and 38% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of York United's recent games and 38% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Vancouver FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Vancouver FC 2-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.22 xG and Vancouver FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.73 / defence 1.14 against Vancouver FC attack 0.55 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 45% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 25%, with York United to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 65%, Vancouver FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, York United arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. York United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.