York United 1-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this York United vs Forge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United's home record at York Lions Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at York Lions Stadium.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forge have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: York United 2.10 PPG, Forge 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, York United have won 0, Forge 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
York United trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 57% versus Forge 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 60% | Forge 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.10 xG and Forge 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.117 / defence 0.833 | Forge attack 1.274 / defence 0.659. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.228. Forge's defence strength of 0.659 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Forge have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 York United games / 45 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 30% | Draw 30% | Forge 40%. Fair-value odds: York United 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Forge 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Forge are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: York United 50% | Forge 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 30% | Draw 30% | Forge 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG York United 1.10 / Forge 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.117 / def 0.833 | Forge attack 1.274 / def 0.659 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Forge (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Forge xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Forge kick off?
York United vs Forge kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 August 2025 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Forge?
York United 1 - 2 Forge.
Where is York United vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Forge part of?
York United vs Forge is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives York United a 30% chance of winning, Forge a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both York United and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
Record (5 meetings): York United 0W | Draws 3 | Forge 2W.
What form are York United and Forge in?
York United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Forge (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
York United's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Forge's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus York United's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
30%
3.31
30%
3.34
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
York United xG
Total xG
2.41
1.30
Forge xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.19
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are York United and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for York United and 1.30 for Forge, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, York United have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 19W 11D 17L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge's form line: 25W 12D 10L from 47 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Venue Form
On home soil, York United have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Forge have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
York United are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.66 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Forge in coming into this match?
York United have gone 19W 11D 17L in their last 47 games (1.45 PPG), while Forge have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Forge away?
York United's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.78 PPG; Forge away: 1.48 PPG.
Have York United or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Forge in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2024, when Forge won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
York United's record when hosting Forge specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
York United
4
Draws
6
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 0, Forge have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did York United and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Forge 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between York United and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 52%, Forge 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (York United) and 52% (Forge). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Forge in 39%; Forge in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of York United's recent matches and 44% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is York United vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of York United's matches and 52% of Forge's.
Do York United and Forge tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Forge in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out York United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat York United 1-2 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.10 xG and Forge 1.30 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.12 / defence 0.83 against Forge attack 1.27 / defence 0.66, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 30% | Draw 30% | Forge 40%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 60%, Forge 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. York United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.