York United 4-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as York United face Atlético Ottawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 July 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Form
York United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, York United have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Atlético Ottawa's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for York United against 1.80 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
York United — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 60% versus Atlético Ottawa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 67% | Atlético Ottawa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.16 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.161 / defence 0.923 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.237 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.241. Atlético Ottawa bring a tight defence (rating 0.703, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling York United's projected output down. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack rating of 1.237, which lifts their away xG to 1.42. Data: built from York United's last 43 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 43.
Result probabilities: York United 29% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 41%. Fair-value odds: York United 3.48 | Draw 3.30 | Atlético Ottawa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atlético Ottawa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: York United 50% (last 10 home games) | Atlético Ottawa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 7 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 29% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG York United 1.16 / Atlético Ottawa 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 1.161 / def 0.923 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.237 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Atlético Ottawa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa FAQs
What time does York United vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Saturday 27 July 2024 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
York United 4 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is York United vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
York United vs Atlético Ottawa is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 7) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives York United a 29% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both York United and Atlético Ottawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will York United vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from York United's attack rating (1.16) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.24x) against York United's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from York United's last 43 games and Atlético Ottawa's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.30
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
York United xG
Total xG
2.57
1.42
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are York United and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for York United and 1.42 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
York United come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 8D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (18W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for York United against 1.51 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
York United's home form reads 9W 3D 8L across their last 20 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 20 away games (9W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
York United are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.53 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: York United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
York United (Home) vs Atlético Ottawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
York United
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa Form FAQs
What form are York United and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
York United have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.50 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.55 PPG.
Have York United or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won York United 4-1 Atlético Ottawa on 1 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
York United
5
Draws
2
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, York United have won 3, Atlético Ottawa have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did York United and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: York United 2-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between York United and Atlético Ottawa?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 50%, Atlético Ottawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (York United) and 45% (Atlético Ottawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa in 35%; York United have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ York United vs Atlético Ottawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in York United and Atlético Ottawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of York United's recent matches and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are York United and Atlético Ottawa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of York United's matches and 45% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do York United and Atlético Ottawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of York United's recent matches and 70% of Atlético Ottawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant York United run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Atlético Ottawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Atlético Ottawa 4-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.16 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.42 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.24 / defence 0.70, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 29% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 41%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 67%, Atlético Ottawa 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.44 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.