Valour 1-2 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Pacific FC travel to IG Field to take on Valour. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Valour have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field.
Pacific FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Valour) versus 1.30 (Pacific FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 51% versus Pacific FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 49% | Pacific FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.23 xG and Pacific FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.847 / defence 0.950 | Pacific FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.331. Data: 43 Valour games / 45 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 35% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Pacific FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Valour 40% | Pacific FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 35% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Valour 1.23 / Pacific FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.847 / def 0.950 | Pacific FC attack 1.021 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Pacific FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Pacific FC kick off?
Valour vs Pacific FC kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Valour 1 - 2 Pacific FC.
Where is Valour vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Pacific FC part of?
Valour vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 35% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valour and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.85) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.72
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Valour xG
Total xG
2.52
1.29
Pacific FC xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valour and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Valour and 1.29 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Valour have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 15W 10D 18L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 21W 10D 12L from 43 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pacific FC are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valour have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L).
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 8W 4D 8L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.65 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC in 63%.
Last 43 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Pacific FC away?
Valour's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.60 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Valour or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, Pacific FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 30%, Pacific FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Valour) and 50% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valour have failed to score in 30% of games; Pacific FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Valour's recent matches and 50% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Valour's recent games and 50% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacific FC edge out Valour 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Valour 1-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.23 xG and Pacific FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Pacific FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 35% | Draw 27% | Pacific FC 38%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 49%, Pacific FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacific FC's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.