Valour 0-2 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valour at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valour vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Pacific FC travel to IG Field to take on Valour. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 August 2021, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Valour have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at IG Field, Valour have gone 4W 0D 0L this season (4 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 4 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
Pacific FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Pacific FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Valour's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Valour's 0% and Pacific FC's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Trading Patterns
Valour in-play and half-time data (12 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valour 25% | Pacific FC 42%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 33% | Pacific FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.32 xG and Pacific FC 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 1.211 / defence 0.812 | Pacific FC attack 0.695 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 0.876. Data: 12 Valour games / 12 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 57% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Valour 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Pacific FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Valour (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Pacific FC's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valour as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pacific FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valour 0% | Pacific FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 57% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 29% | xG Valour 1.32 / Pacific FC 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 1.211 / def 0.812 | Pacific FC attack 0.695 / def 1.112 | league avg home 0.980 / away 0.876 • Poisson stance: Valour (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Pacific FC xG
29%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Pacific FC kick off?
Valour vs Pacific FC kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Valour 0 - 2 Pacific FC.
Where is Valour vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Pacific FC part of?
Valour vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 57% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Valour and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in?
Valour (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valour's attack rating (1.21) and Pacific FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Valour's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.7%), 2-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
57%
1.75
29%
3.47
14%
7.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Valour xG
Total xG
1.81
0.49
Pacific FC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
7.19
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.50
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
35%
2.86
4%
26.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 21.5 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Valour and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Valour and 0.49 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Pacific FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Valour have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 6W 1D 5L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC's form line: 6W 4D 2L from 12 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valour on 1.58 PPG, Pacific FC on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valour have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pacific FC have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pacific FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valour come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valour are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Valour have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; Pacific FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Pacific FC away?
Valour's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 3.00 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Valour or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Pacific FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valour's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valour
2
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 3, Pacific FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Pacific FC 1-4 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Pacific FC tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Valour 0% BTTS, Pacific FC 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Valour and 25% for Pacific FC.
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Pacific FC in 75%; Pacific FC in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Valour's recent matches and 0% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Valour's recent games and 25% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Valour 0-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.32 xG and Pacific FC 0.49 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Valour fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Pacific FC outscored their 0.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 1.21 / defence 0.81 against Pacific FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.11, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 57% | Draw 29% | Pacific FC 14%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Pacific FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 33%, Pacific FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacific FC's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valour 1.58 PPG, Pacific FC 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.