Valour 0-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 39%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valour vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to IG Field to face Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 September 2021 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Valour (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 1L across 6 games at IG Field this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Valour are significantly better at IG Field than their overall form suggests.
Cavalry FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 27% versus Cavalry FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 40% | Cavalry FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 1.11 xG and Cavalry FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 1.129 / defence 0.905 | Cavalry FC attack 1.081 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 0.972. Data: 15 Valour games / 15 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 39% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Valour 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Cavalry FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valour are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valour 0% | Cavalry FC 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 39% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Valour 1.11 / Cavalry FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 1.129 / def 0.905 | Cavalry FC attack 1.081 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.071 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: Valour (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Valour xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cavalry FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Valour vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Valour 0 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Valour vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Cavalry FC part of?
Valour vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 39% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valour and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valour's attack rating (1.13) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.08x) against Valour's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.31
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Valour xG
Total xG
2.06
0.95
Cavalry FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Valour and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Valour and 0.95 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour's recent record stands at 7W 1D 7L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 3L across 15 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valour heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valour have managed 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across 6 trips, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.20 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Valour have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 7W 1D 7L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 8W 4D 3L in their last 15 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Cavalry FC away?
Valour's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 2.50 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Valour or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valour
2
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Valour) and 50% (Cavalry FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Valour) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 33%; Cavalry FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Valour's recent matches and 50% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Valour's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Valour 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 0-1 at IG Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 1.11 xG and Cavalry FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valour fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 1.13 / defence 0.91 against Cavalry FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 39% | Draw 30% | Cavalry FC 31%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 40%, Cavalry FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.