Pacific FC 1-0 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates York United at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacific FC vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
York United travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (Play-off). The game is scheduled for Thursday 12 October 2023 at 04:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pacific FC have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pacific FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, York United stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, York United have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. York United are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Pacific FC's games and 90% of York United's (from Pacific FC's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
York United in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 52% versus York United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 46% | York United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.27 xG and York United 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.911 / defence 1.005 | York United attack 1.235 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.312. York United have an above-average attack rating of 1.235, which lifts their away xG to 1.63. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 56 games and York United's last 56.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 30% | Draw 24% | York United 46%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.34 | Draw 4.11 | York United 2.19. York United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates York United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on York United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pacific FC's last 10 home games and York United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 60% (last 10 home games) | York United 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Play-off | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 October 2023 at 04:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 30% | Draw 24% | York United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Pacific FC 1.27 / York United 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.911 / def 1.005 | York United attack 1.235 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: York United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
York United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs York United FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs York United kick off?
Pacific FC vs York United kicked off at 04:00 UK time on Thursday 12 October 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Pacific FC 1 - 0 York United.
Where is Pacific FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs York United part of?
Pacific FC vs York United is a Canadian Premier League fixture (Play-off) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 30% chance of winning, York United a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making York United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pacific FC and York United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pacific FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against York United's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 56 games and York United's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
York United Win
30%
3.34
24%
4.11
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.63
York United xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
6%
17.00
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.63 for York United, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 22W 15D 19L from 56 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
York United, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 24L across 56 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.45 PPG, York United on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 10W 9D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
York United's away record stands at 11W 6D 10L across their last 27 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
Pacific FC (Home) vs York United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and York United in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while York United have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or York United away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.44 PPG; York United away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 27 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Aug 2025, when York United won York United 5-1 Pacific FC.
Pacific FC's record when hosting York United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pacific FC
3
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs York United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and York United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 3, York United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and York United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 September 2026: York United 3-4 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 56%, York United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pacific FC) and 59% (York United).
On the defensive side: York United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs York United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and York United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Pacific FC's games and 56% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pacific FC and York United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pacific FC's recent games and 59% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and York United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 59% of York United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacific FC defy the odds to beat York United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat York United 1-0 at Starlight Stadium, Play-off, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.27 xG and York United 1.63 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. York United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against York United attack 1.24 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 30% | Draw 24% | York United 46%, with York United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Pacific FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 46%, York United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
York United's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.45 PPG, York United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. York United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.