Pacific FC 3-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pacific FC face Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vancouver FC travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 23:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Pacific FC stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pacific FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pacific FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Vancouver FC have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Vancouver FC away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Pacific FC) versus 0.80 (Vancouver FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Pacific FC have won 0, Vancouver FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2024, ended Pacific FC 0–1 Vancouver FC — a Vancouver FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 46% versus Vancouver FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | Vancouver FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.35 xG and Vancouver FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.818 / defence 1.039 | Vancouver FC attack 1.160 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.117. Data: built from Pacific FC's last 49 games and Vancouver FC's last 50.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 36% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.76 | Draw 3.61 | Vancouver FC 2.77. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Pacific FC 36% and Vancouver FC 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pacific FC's last 10 home games and Vancouver FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pacific FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Vancouver FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 36% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Pacific FC 1.35 / Vancouver FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.818 / def 1.039 | Vancouver FC attack 1.160 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Pacific FC and Vancouver FC level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Vancouver FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC FAQs
What time does Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Pacific FC 3 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC is a Canadian Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 36% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pacific FC and Vancouver FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pacific FC's last 49 games and Vancouver FC's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.61
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.34
Vancouver FC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.34 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 18W 11D 21L from 50 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Vancouver FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 25L across 50 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.30 PPG, Vancouver FC on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 9W 6D 9L from their last 24 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vancouver FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 14L across their last 24 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacific FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
Pacific FC (Home) vs Vancouver FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pacific FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Form FAQs
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.38 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Canadian Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won Pacific FC 3-0 Vancouver FC.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
5
Draws
3
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Pacific FC 1-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 42%, Vancouver FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Pacific FC) and 62% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pacific FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Vancouver FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 58% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pacific FC's recent games and 62% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Vancouver FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 75% of Vancouver FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pacific FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Vancouver FC 3-0 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.35 xG and Vancouver FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vancouver FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Vancouver FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 36% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 36%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, Vancouver FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.30 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacific FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.