Pacific FC 0-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 03:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Forge (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Pacific FC's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 51% versus Forge 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | Forge 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.15 xG and Forge 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.019 / defence 0.888 | Forge attack 0.997 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.217. Data: 43 Pacific FC games / 44 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 36% | Draw 32% | Forge 32%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Forge 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacific FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 50% | Forge 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 36% | Draw 32% | Forge 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Pacific FC 1.15 / Forge 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.019 / def 0.888 | Forge attack 0.997 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Forge xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 03:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 0 - 2 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 36% chance of winning, Forge a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Forge (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.02) and Forge's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.00x) against Pacific FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
36%
2.79
32%
3.14
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.22
1.08
Forge xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.08 for Forge, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 13D 12L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.69 PPG from 45 outings (22W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Pacific FC against 1.69 for Forge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 10W 8D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.65 points per game from 23 outings (11W 5D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.56 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 20W 13D 12L in their last 45 games (1.62 PPG), while Forge have gone 22W 10D 13L in their last 45 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.65 PPG; Forge away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Forge in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Forge have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 56%, Forge 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Pacific FC) and 35% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Forge in 44%; Forge in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 35% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Pacific FC's recent games and 35% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Forge tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Forge in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Forge cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Pacific FC 0-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.15 xG and Forge 1.08 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Forge outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against Forge attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 36% | Draw 32% | Forge 32%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, Forge 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Forge's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.62 PPG, Forge 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Forge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.