Pacific FC 1-1 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forge at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Forge make the trip to Starlight Stadium to face Pacific FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 19 September 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pacific FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC at Starlight Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Forge (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Pacific FC, 1.60 for Forge — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Pacific FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Forge goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 58% versus Forge 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 62% | Forge 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.23 xG and Forge 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.166 / defence 1.116 | Forge attack 1.188 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.177. Data: 51 Pacific FC games / 51 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 30% | Draw 25% | Forge 45%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Forge 2.22. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Forge if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 60% | Forge 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Sep 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 30% | Draw 25% | Forge 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Pacific FC 1.23 / Forge 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.166 / def 1.116 | Forge attack 1.188 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Forge (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Forge xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Forge kick off?
Pacific FC vs Forge kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 19 September 2022 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Pacific FC 1 - 1 Forge.
Where is Pacific FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Forge part of?
Pacific FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 30% chance of winning, Forge a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Pacific FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Forge (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.17) and Forge's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Forge's attack (1.19x) against Pacific FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
30%
3.32
25%
4.01
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.56
Forge xG
3.32
30%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.56 for Forge, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pacific FC come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 12D 16L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Forge sit at 1.74 PPG from 53 outings (29W 5D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Pacific FC against 1.74 for Forge. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pacific FC's home form reads 15W 6D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Forge have taken 1.69 points per game from 26 outings (14W 2D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Pacific FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.58 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 25W 12D 16L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Forge have gone 29W 5D 19L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Forge away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.96 PPG; Forge away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Forge in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Forge have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Forge won 4-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacific FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Forge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
1
Draws
8
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Forge have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Forge?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 73%, Forge 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Pacific FC and 46% for Forge. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Forge in 42%; Forge in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 31% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Pacific FC's matches and 46% of Forge's.
Do Pacific FC and Forge tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Forge in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and Forge share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC and Forge finished level at 1-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.23 xG and Forge 1.56 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.12 against Forge attack 1.19 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 30% | Draw 25% | Forge 45%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 62%, Forge 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Forge's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.64 PPG, Forge 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.