Pacific FC 1-2 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 02:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 5W 1D 1L this season (7 games, 2.29 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 3W 1D 1L from 5 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Pacific FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Cavalry FC trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 42% versus Cavalry FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 58% | Cavalry FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.55 xG and Cavalry FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.488 / defence 1.236 | Cavalry FC attack 1.067 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 0.942 / away 0.914. Pacific FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.488 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Pacific FC games / 12 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 45% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Cavalry FC 3.33. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 57% | Cavalry FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 02:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 45% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Pacific FC 1.55 / Cavalry FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.488 / def 1.236 | Cavalry FC attack 1.067 / def 1.102 | league avg home 0.942 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 02:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 2 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 45% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.49) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.98
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.21
Cavalry FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.21 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 6W 4D 2L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 6W 3D 3L from 12 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.83 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 80%, Cavalry FC at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Pacific FC and 60% for Cavalry FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Pacific FC's games and 60% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Pacific FC's matches and 60% of Cavalry FC's.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cavalry FC defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 1-2 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.55 xG and Cavalry FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.49 / defence 1.24 against Cavalry FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 45% | Draw 25% | Cavalry FC 30%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 58%, Cavalry FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.83 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.