Pacific FC 1-4 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Pacific FC take on Cavalry FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cavalry FC — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Pacific FC have won 0, Cavalry FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Cavalry FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cavalry FC trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 46% versus Cavalry FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 43% | Cavalry FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 0.98 xG and Cavalry FC 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.965 / defence 0.958 | Cavalry FC attack 1.064 / defence 0.718. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.115. Cavalry FC's defence strength of 0.718 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Pacific FC games / 53 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 28% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Cavalry FC 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 30% | Cavalry FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 28% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Pacific FC 0.98 / Cavalry FC 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.965 / def 0.958 | Cavalry FC attack 1.064 / def 0.718 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Cavalry FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 4 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 28% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (3 meetings): Pacific FC 0W | Draws 2 | Cavalry FC 1W.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.96) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.60
37%
2.72
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.12
1.14
Cavalry FC xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.14 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 14D 22L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC's form line: 26W 19D 11L from 56 games, 1.73 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pacific FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (11W 7D 9L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 11W 8D 8L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 20W 14D 22L in their last 56 games (1.32 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 26W 19D 11L in their last 56 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.48 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 41%, Cavalry FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Pacific FC) and 44% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pacific FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 63% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Pacific FC's recent games and 44% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 1-4 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 0.98 xG and Cavalry FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Cavalry FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.72, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 28% | Draw 37% | Cavalry FC 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cavalry FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 43%, Cavalry FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pacific FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.