Pacific FC 1-1 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 42%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Cavalry FC at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Cavalry FC have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cavalry FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pacific FC have won 0, Cavalry FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 52% versus Cavalry FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 48% | Cavalry FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.11 xG and Cavalry FC 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.774 / defence 0.697 | Cavalry FC attack 1.018 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 0.967. Pacific FC's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pacific FC's defence rating of 0.697 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Pacific FC games / 35 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 42% | Draw 39% | Cavalry FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.38 | Draw 2.56 | Cavalry FC 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pacific FC 50% | Cavalry FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 42% | Draw 39% | Cavalry FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Pacific FC 1.11 / Cavalry FC 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.774 / def 0.697 | Cavalry FC attack 1.018 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.582 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Cavalry FC xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 1 Cavalry FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 42% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 19% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Pacific FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Record (1 meetings): Pacific FC 0W | Draws 1 | Cavalry FC 0W.
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.77) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cavalry FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
42%
2.40
39%
2.53
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
1.79
0.69
Cavalry FC xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.53
39%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
6%
16.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.69 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Pacific FC have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 26W 15D 20L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Cavalry FC's form line: 31W 13D 17L from 61 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.52 PPG, Cavalry FC on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pacific FC have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L).
On the road, Cavalry FC have gone 10W 9D 11L from 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cavalry FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Pacific FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 26W 15D 20L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 31W 13D 17L in their last 61 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Cavalry FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 57%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pacific FC) and 53% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Pacific FC's games and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pacific FC's recent games and 53% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and Cavalry FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC and Cavalry FC finished level at 1-1 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.11 xG and Cavalry FC 0.69 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.70 against Cavalry FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 42% | Draw 39% | Cavalry FC 19%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 48%, Cavalry FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.52 PPG, Cavalry FC 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.