Pacific FC 0-3 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Atlético Ottawa travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's home record at Starlight Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Starlight Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Pacific FC are significantly better at Starlight Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pacific FC 0.90 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pacific FC have won 1, Atlético Ottawa 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Pacific FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacific FC 50% versus Atlético Ottawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 44% | Atlético Ottawa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.10 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.714 / defence 0.981 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.080 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.219. Pacific FC's attack strength of 0.714 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Pacific FC games / 46 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 32% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 41%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Atlético Ottawa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atlético Ottawa at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 30% | Atlético Ottawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 32% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Pacific FC 1.10 / Atlético Ottawa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.714 / def 0.981 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.080 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Atlético Ottawa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Pacific FC 0 - 3 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 32% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (1 meetings): Pacific FC 1W | Draws 0 | Atlético Ottawa 0W.
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.71) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
32%
3.15
28%
3.63
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.40
1.29
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.29 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 11D 18L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.41 PPG from 46 outings (18W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 1.35 PPG, Atlético Ottawa on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.48 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 17W 11D 18L in their last 46 games (1.35 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Atlético Ottawa's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
3
Draws
6
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-0 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 46%, Atlético Ottawa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pacific FC) and 50% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 32%; Pacific FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pacific FC's recent games and 50% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atlético Ottawa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pacific FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Pacific FC 0-3 at Starlight Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.10 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 32% | Draw 28% | Atlético Ottawa 41%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 44%, Atlético Ottawa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 1.35 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.