Forge 1-3 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Forge at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Forge vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees York United travel to Tim Hortons Field to take on Forge. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge at Tim Hortons Field this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, York United stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
York United away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Forge carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Forge trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
York United trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 38% versus York United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 50% | York United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.66 xG and York United 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.214 / defence 0.770 | York United attack 0.820 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.286. Forge's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Forge games / 48 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forge 57% | Draw 24% | York United 18%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | York United 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Forge (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Forge 40% | York United 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 57% | Draw 24% | York United 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Forge 1.66 / York United 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.214 / def 0.770 | York United attack 0.820 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Forge (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Forge xG
Expected Goals
0.81
York United xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs York United kick off?
Forge vs York United kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs York United?
Forge 1 - 3 York United.
Where is Forge vs York United being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs York United part of?
Forge vs York United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 57% chance of winning, York United a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs York United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Forge and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forge and York United in?
Forge (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. York United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.21) and York United's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, York United's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
57%
1.74
24%
4.11
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Forge xG
Total xG
2.47
0.81
York United xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
25%
3.92
3%
28.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Forge and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Forge and 0.81 for York United, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Forge have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 28W 4D 16L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 13W 17D 18L from 48 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against York United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Forge have posted 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (13W 3D 7L).
On the road, York United have gone 6W 8D 9L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Forge are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and York United in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 28W 4D 16L in their last 48 games (1.83 PPG), while York United have gone 13W 17D 18L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or York United away?
Forge's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 1.83 PPG; York United away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Forge or York United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, York United in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Forge and York United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Forge have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Forge won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Forge's record when hosting York United specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
3
Draws
0
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, York United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Forge and York United last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when York United 1-3 Forge.
Who has won more matches between Forge and York United?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 44%, York United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Forge) and 48% (York United).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Forge have failed to score in 26% of games; York United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play York United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Forge's recent matches and 52% of York United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Forge's recent games and 48% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and York United tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, York United in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Forge.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Forge 1-3 at Tim Hortons Field, Regular Season - 9, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.66 xG and York United 0.81 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. York United outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.21 / defence 0.77 against York United attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 57% | Draw 24% | York United 18%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 50%, York United 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
York United's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with York United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Forge (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.