Cavalry FC 2-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Valour encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 4W 4D 2L at ATCO Field — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Valour's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Valour's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Valour in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus Valour 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | Valour 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.66 xG and Valour 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.101 / defence 0.895 | Valour attack 1.511 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.154. Valour have an above-average attack strength of 1.511 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Cavalry FC games / 33 Valour games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 23% | Valour 36%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Valour 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 60% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 23% | Valour 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Cavalry FC 1.66 / Valour 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.101 / def 0.895 | Valour attack 1.511 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Valour xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Valour kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Valour kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Valour.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Valour part of?
Cavalry FC vs Valour is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 40% chance of winning, Valour a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Cavalry FC and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.51x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
The sample (34/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
40%
2.48
23%
4.28
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.56
Valour xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.56 for Valour, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 13W 8D 7L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Valour's form line: 10W 5D 13L from 28 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valour.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L).
On the road, Valour have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Valour in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Valour
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Valour in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 games (1.68 PPG), while Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Valour away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Valour away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Valour in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
2
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 6, Valour have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Valour?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 50%, Valour 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cavalry FC) and 57% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 36% of games; Valour in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Valour?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 57% of Valour's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 57% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Valour tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Valour in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Valour 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 2-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.66 xG and Valour 1.56 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.90 against Valour attack 1.51 / defence 1.17, drawn from 34/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 40% | Draw 23% | Valour 36%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, Valour 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.