Cavalry FC 1-2 Forge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Forge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Forge travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 28 July 2022, 02:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Forge have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Forge away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Cavalry FC) versus 2.20 (Forge). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Cavalry FC trading profile (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Forge trading profile (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 50% versus Forge 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 50% | Forge 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.34 xG and Forge 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.147 / defence 0.757 | Forge attack 1.289 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.313. Forge have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Cavalry FC's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Cavalry FC games / 42 Forge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 38% | Draw 26% | Forge 36%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Forge 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Forge 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Forge | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Jul 2022, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 38% | Draw 26% | Forge 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Cavalry FC 1.34 / Forge 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.147 / def 0.757 | Forge attack 1.289 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Forge xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Forge kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Forge kicked off at 02:00 on Thursday 28 July 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Cavalry FC 1 - 2 Forge.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Forge being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Forge part of?
Cavalry FC vs Forge is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 38% chance of winning, Forge a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cavalry FC and Forge will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Forge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Forge (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.15) and Forge's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Forge's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.81
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.28
Forge xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Forge expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.28 for Forge, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Forge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 21W 12D 11L from 44 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Forge, meanwhile, have gone 25W 4D 15L across 44 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cavalry FC on 1.70 PPG, Forge on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Forge's away record stands at 12W 1D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Forge are on 1.66 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Forge in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Forge
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Forge in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 21W 12D 11L in their last 44 games (1.70 PPG), while Forge have gone 25W 4D 15L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Forge away?
Forge's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Forge away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Forge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Forge in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Forge specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
3
Forge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Forge?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Forge have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Forge last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Forge 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Forge?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 45%, Forge 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cavalry FC) and 45% (Forge).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Forge in 45%; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 30% of games; Forge in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Forge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Forge?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 30% of Forge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Forge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 45% of Forge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Forge tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Forge in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Forge defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Cavalry FC 1-2 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.34 xG and Forge 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.76 against Forge attack 1.29 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 38% | Draw 26% | Forge 36%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Forge win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 50%, Forge 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Forge's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.70 PPG, Forge 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Forge win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.