Cavalry FC 2-2 FC Edmonton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Edmonton make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 3W 2D 2L from 7 home games — 1.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Edmonton have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 0.80 PPG lead over FC Edmonton (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cavalry FC 1W, FC Edmonton 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Cavalry FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cavalry FC half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Edmonton half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 46% versus FC Edmonton 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 46% | FC Edmonton 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.05 xG and FC Edmonton 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.711 / defence 1.104 | FC Edmonton attack 0.744 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 0.940. Cavalry FC's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Edmonton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Cavalry FC games / 13 FC Edmonton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 32% | FC Edmonton 26%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | FC Edmonton 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — FC Edmonton's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 29% | FC Edmonton 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 32% | FC Edmonton 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Cavalry FC 1.05 / FC Edmonton 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.711 / def 1.104 | FC Edmonton attack 0.744 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.030 / away 0.940 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.77
FC Edmonton xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton kick off?
Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Cavalry FC 2 - 2 FC Edmonton.
Where is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton part of?
Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 42% chance of winning, FC Edmonton a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
Record (1 meetings): Cavalry FC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Edmonton 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 0.71x the league average against FC Edmonton's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Edmonton's attack (0.74x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
42%
2.41
32%
3.11
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
1.83
0.77
FC Edmonton xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.77 for FC Edmonton, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 13 games, going 7W 3D 3L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Edmonton sit at 1.00 PPG from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Edmonton have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Edmonton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; FC Edmonton are on 0.92 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
FC Edmonton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while FC Edmonton have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or FC Edmonton away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.57 PPG; FC Edmonton away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or FC Edmonton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Edmonton in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 0-3 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
0
FC Edmonton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
From 9 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, FC Edmonton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when FC Edmonton 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Edmonton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 29%, FC Edmonton 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cavalry FC) and 57% (FC Edmonton).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 57% of games; FC Edmonton in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / FC Edmonton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play FC Edmonton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 57% of FC Edmonton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs FC Edmonton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 57% of FC Edmonton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FC Edmonton in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC and FC Edmonton finished level at 2-2 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.05 xG and FC Edmonton 0.77 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Edmonton outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against FC Edmonton attack 0.74 / defence 1.44, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 42% | Draw 32% | FC Edmonton 26%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 46%, FC Edmonton 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Edmonton's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Edmonton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.