Cavalry FC 1-3 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 September 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cavalry FC are significantly better at ATCO Field than their overall form suggests.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.60 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 47% versus Atlético Ottawa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 49% | Atlético Ottawa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 0.94 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.050 / defence 0.877 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.128 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.159. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Cavalry FC games / 53 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 30% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 40%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Atlético Ottawa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 40% | Atlético Ottawa 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 30% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Cavalry FC 0.94 / Atlético Ottawa 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.050 / def 0.877 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.128 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Atlético Ottawa xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Cavalry FC 1 - 3 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 30% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.05) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.13x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
30%
3.37
30%
3.35
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.08
1.15
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.3 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.15 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 13D 15L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.28 PPG from 53 outings (17W 17D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.28 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 13W 5D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 25W 13D 15L in their last 53 games (1.66 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 17W 17D 19L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 3, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 44%, Atlético Ottawa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cavalry FC) and 36% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cavalry FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Atlético Ottawa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 36% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 1-3 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.94 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.15 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.13 / defence 0.67, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 30% | Draw 30% | Atlético Ottawa 40%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 49%, Atlético Ottawa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.66 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atlético Ottawa win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.