Cavalry FC 1-3 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 46%, yet in-form Cavalry FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 April 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 0.90 PPG lead over Atlético Ottawa (2.10 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cavalry FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 64% versus Atlético Ottawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | Atlético Ottawa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.23 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.984 / defence 0.941 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.273 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.372. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Cavalry FC games / 31 Atlético Ottawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 28% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 46%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Atlético Ottawa 2.17. Atlético Ottawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cavalry FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 80% | Atlético Ottawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 28% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Cavalry FC 1.23 / Atlético Ottawa 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.984 / def 0.941 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.273 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Atlético Ottawa xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Cavalry FC 1 - 3 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 28% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (2 meetings): Cavalry FC 1W | Draws 1 | Atlético Ottawa 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (0.98) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.27x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
The sample (30/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.91
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.64
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
5%
18.43
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.64 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 58 games, going 31W 16D 11L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.40 PPG from 58 outings (21W 18D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Cavalry FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 17W 9D 3L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.38 points per game from 29 outings (11W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.41 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 31W 16D 11L in their last 58 games (1.88 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 21W 18D 19L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 66%, Atlético Ottawa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cavalry FC) and 45% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Cavalry FC's games and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 45% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cavalry FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Cavalry FC 1-3 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.23 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.64 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.27 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 28% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 46%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, Atlético Ottawa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.40. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.