Atlético Ottawa 2-0 Valour – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valour at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atlético Ottawa vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atlético Ottawa and Valour meet at TD Place Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 21 October 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atlético Ottawa's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valour have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Valour have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 0.60 for Valour. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Valour in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 58% versus Valour 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 50% | Valour 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.32 xG and Valour 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.911 / defence 1.469 | Valour attack 0.807 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.068 / away 1.163. Valour bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Atlético Ottawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Atlético Ottawa games / 24 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 29% | Valour 37%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Valour 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valour at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 70% | Valour 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Oct 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 29% | Valour 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.32 / Valour 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 0.911 / def 1.469 | Valour attack 0.807 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.068 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Valour (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Valour xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 21 October 2021 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Atlético Ottawa 2 - 0 Valour.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Valour is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 34% chance of winning, Valour a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Valour (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 0.91x the league average against Valour's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valour's attack (0.81x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.45
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.70
1.38
Valour xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.38 for Valour, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Atlético Ottawa have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 4W 6D 14L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valour's form line: 8W 4D 12L from 24 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valour are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atlético Ottawa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atlético Ottawa have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L).
On the road, Valour have gone 2W 1D 8L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.17 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Valour in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Valour in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 4W 6D 14L in their last 24 games (0.75 PPG), while Valour have gone 8W 4D 12L in their last 24 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Valour away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 0.91 PPG; Valour away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 4% of their recent games, Valour in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 5-2 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atlético Ottawa
3
Draws
1
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 6, Valour have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Valour 3-3 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Valour?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 64%, Valour 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Atlético Ottawa) and 54% (Valour).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 36% of games; Valour in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 54% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 54% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Valour tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Valour in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atlético Ottawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa beat Valour 2-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.32 xG and Valour 1.38 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Valour landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 0.91 / defence 1.47 against Valour attack 0.81 / defence 1.36, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 34% | Draw 29% | Valour 37%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Atlético Ottawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 50%, Valour 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Valour's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valour arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Atlético Ottawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Valour (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.