Vitoria vs Santos – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santos at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Barradao to face Vitoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Vitoria (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Vitoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitoria's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Barradao this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Barradao. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Vitoria are significantly better at Barradao than their overall form suggests.
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santos away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Vitoria against 1.40 for Santos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitoria lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Santos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Vitoria — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Santos — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 40% versus Santos 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 39% | Santos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.06 xG and Santos 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.815 / defence 0.924 | Santos attack 1.164 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.176. Data: 63 Vitoria games / 62 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 28% | Draw 33% | Santos 39%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Santos 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 10% | Santos 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 28% | Draw 33% | Santos 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Vitoria 1.06 / Santos 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.815 / def 0.924 | Santos attack 1.164 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Santos (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Santos xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Santos kick off?
Vitoria vs Santos is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Barradao.
Where is Vitoria vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Santos part of?
Vitoria vs Santos is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 28% chance of winning, Santos a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vitoria and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Santos?
Record (3 meetings): Vitoria 1W | Draws 0 | Santos 2W.
What form are Vitoria and Santos in?
Vitoria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Santos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vitoria's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Santos's attack (1.16x) against Vitoria's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
28%
3.53
33%
3.02
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.32
1.27
Santos xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.27 for Santos, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitoria come into this having played 62 games, going 19W 17D 26L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Vitoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.23 PPG from 62 outings (19W 19D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Vitoria against 1.23 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Vitoria's home form reads 17W 7D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Vitoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (6W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitoria are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.27 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Santos in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 19W 17D 26L in their last 62 games (1.19 PPG), while Santos have gone 19W 19D 24L in their last 62 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Santos away?
Vitoria's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.93 PPG; Santos away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Vitoria or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitoria have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Santos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Vitoria
0
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Santos?
From 3 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 1, Santos have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Santos 3-1 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Santos?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 30%, Santos 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Vitoria) and 63% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Vitoria keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Vitoria have failed to score in 27% of games; Santos in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Vitoria's recent matches and 60% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitoria vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Vitoria's recent games and 63% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Santos tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Santos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.