Vitoria 1-0 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitoria at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to Barradao to face Vitoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 21:30 UTC.
Form
Vitoria (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Vitoria's home record at Barradao: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Barradao. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mirassol's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Vitoria, 1.80 for Mirassol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Vitoria have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Mirassol in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Vitoria 1W, Mirassol 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Vitoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Vitoria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitoria 42% versus Mirassol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 40% | Mirassol 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.29 xG and Mirassol 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.990 / defence 0.816 | Mirassol attack 0.947 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.065. Data: 44 Vitoria games / 44 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 48% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 24%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Mirassol 4.17. Vitoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitoria as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitoria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vitoria 20% | Mirassol 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Barradao • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 48% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Vitoria 1.29 / Mirassol 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.990 / def 0.816 | Mirassol attack 0.947 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Vitoria (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Mirassol xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Mirassol kick off?
Vitoria vs Mirassol kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Barradao.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Mirassol?
Vitoria 1 - 0 Mirassol.
Where is Vitoria vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Barradao.
What competition is Vitoria vs Mirassol part of?
Vitoria vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 48% chance of winning, Mirassol a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vitoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Vitoria and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Mirassol?
Record (2 meetings): Vitoria 1W | Draws 1 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are Vitoria and Mirassol in?
Vitoria (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vitoria's attack at 0.99x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.95x) against Vitoria's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitoria Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.48
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.12
0.82
Mirassol xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vitoria and 0.82 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Vitoria have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 12D 15L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Mirassol's form line: 18W 13D 7L from 38 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Mirassol are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitoria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vitoria have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Vitoria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 6W 6D 7L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitoria are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.66 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitoria and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Vitoria have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitoria at home or Mirassol away?
Vitoria's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitoria at home: 1.74 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Vitoria or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitoria have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mirassol in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vitoria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitoria have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mirassol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Vitoria
1
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 2, Mirassol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Vitoria 1-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Mirassol?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitoria 42%, Mirassol 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Vitoria and 32% for Mirassol.
On the defensive side: Vitoria keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Vitoria have failed to score in 26% of games; Mirassol in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitoria play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Vitoria's recent matches and 47% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitoria vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Vitoria's recent games and 32% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitoria and Mirassol tend to score early?
Vitoria have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitoria edge out Mirassol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Mirassol 1-0 at Barradao, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 1.29 xG and Mirassol 0.82 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mirassol landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Mirassol attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 48% | Draw 29% | Mirassol 24%, with Vitoria to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitoria 40%, Mirassol 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Vitoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.