Vitoria 1-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Vitoria at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vitoria face Juventude.

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Analysis

Juventude make the trip to Estádio Manoel Barradas to face Vitoria in Serie A (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Current Form

Vitoria's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Vitoria's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Juventude have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Juventude's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Vitoria against 1.10 for Juventude. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Vitoria, 0 for Juventude and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Jun 2024, ended Vitoria 1–1 Juventude — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Vitoria — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Juventude — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitoria 54% and Juventude 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitoria 50% | Juventude 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vitoria surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Juventude have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 1.33 xG and Juventude 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.816 / defence 1.246 | Juventude attack 0.813 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.030. Juventude's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vitoria's projected output up. Vitoria's defence rating of 1.246 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Juventude's projected output up. Data: built from Vitoria's last 26 games and Juventude's last 26.

Result probabilities: Vitoria 43% | Draw 28% | Juventude 29%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 2.32 | Draw 3.62 | Juventude 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Vitoria as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Vitoria 50% (last 10 home games) | Juventude 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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