Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 37%, yet in-form Fluminense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio do Maracanã to take on Vasco DA Gama. The game is scheduled for Thursday 19 March 2026, 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estádio do Maracanã this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fluminense are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 2 for Fluminense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fluminense trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Fluminense 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Fluminense 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.22 xG and Fluminense 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.989 / defence 1.048 | Fluminense attack 1.028 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.122. Data: 44 Vasco DA Gama games / 44 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 37% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 36%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 60% | Fluminense 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Thursday 19 Mar 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 37% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.22 / Fluminense 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.989 / def 1.048 | Fluminense attack 1.028 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fluminense xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 19 March 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama 3 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 37% chance of winning, Fluminense a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense?
Record (6 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 3W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.99x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.64
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.43
1.21
Fluminense xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.21 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Vasco DA Gama have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 27W 14D 35L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 31W 17D 28L from 76 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.25 PPG, Fluminense on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasco DA Gama have posted 1.66 PPG from 38 outings (18W 9D 11L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 9W 8D 21L from 38 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.09 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Fluminense away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.66 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fluminense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Vasco DA Gama have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense?
From 7 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Fluminense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 53%, Fluminense 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 32% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 37% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 32% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Fluminense 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Fluminense 3-2 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.22 xG and Fluminense 1.21 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.99 / defence 1.05 against Fluminense attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 37% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 36%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Fluminense 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, Fluminense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.