Vasco DA Gama 0-0 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (34%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Vasco DA Gama face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time.
Current Form
Vasco DA Gama's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Vasco DA Gama at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Flamengo have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Flamengo arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Flamengo, who have 3 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Flamengo — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Flamengo have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Vasco DA Gama — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Flamengo — key trading statistics (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 50% versus Flamengo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 43% | Flamengo 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Vasco DA Gama surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Flamengo have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 58% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.29 xG and Flamengo 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.177 / defence 1.096 | Flamengo attack 1.310 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 0.905. Flamengo bring a tight defence (rating 0.749, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Vasco DA Gama's projected output down. Flamengo have an above-average attack rating of 1.310, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Data: built from Vasco DA Gama's last 42 games and Flamengo's last 42.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 34% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 34%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.94 | Draw 3.16 | Flamengo 2.91. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Vasco DA Gama 34% and Flamengo 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Vasco DA Gama 50% (last 10 home games) | Flamengo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 34% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.29 / Flamengo 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.177 / def 1.096 | Flamengo attack 1.310 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.463 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo level at 34% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Flamengo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo FAQs
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 0 Flamengo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 34% chance of winning, Flamengo a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.18) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.31x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Vasco DA Gama's last 42 games and Flamengo's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
34%
2.94
32%
3.16
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.59
1.30
Flamengo xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.30 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 26W 17D 33L from 76 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 39W 19D 18L across 76 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 19W 7D 12L from their last 38 home games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Flamengo's away record stands at 18W 9D 11L across their last 38 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.54 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama (Home) vs Flamengo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Form FAQs
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 26W 17D 33L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 39W 19D 18L in their last 76 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Flamengo away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.68 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Vasco DA Gama or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo, the earliest from June 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won Vasco DA Gama 1-6 Flamengo on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasco DA Gama have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
4
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Flamengo have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Vasco DA Gama 1-4 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 47%, Flamengo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Vasco DA Gama) and 58% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 60% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 58% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 68% of Flamengo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vasco DA Gama's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 5, as Vasco DA Gama and Flamengo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.29 xG and Flamengo 1.30 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Flamengo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Flamengo attack 1.31 / defence 0.75, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 34% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 34%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 43%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Flamengo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.